Chang Jiang Shang Bao·2026-01-05 04:50Core Viewpoint - Tesla's global vehicle deliveries for 2025 are projected to be 1.636 million, representing an approximate 8.6% year-over-year decline, marking the first time that Tesla's annual electric vehicle sales have been surpassed by Chinese manufacturer BYD, which expects to deliver 2.26 million electric vehicles in the same year [2][4][14]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first 11 months of 2025, Tesla's vehicle registrations in China reached 531,900, down 7.37% from 574,200 in the same period last year, although China remains Tesla's largest single market [2][12]. - Tesla's production for 2025 is estimated at 1.655 million electric vehicles, with deliveries of 1.636 million, both lower than the previous year's figures of 1.773 million and 1.789 million respectively [5]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla produced approximately 434,000 vehicles and delivered about 418,000, which is a year-over-year decline of around 16% compared to the same quarter in 2024 [5]. Group 2: Market Competition - BYD's electric vehicle sales are increasingly coming from markets outside of China, including Asia, Europe, and Latin America, contributing to its growth of 28% year-over-year [4]. - Analysts indicate that Tesla faces growing competition from various global automakers entering the electric vehicle market, with companies like BYD and Geely targeting both mid-range and high-end segments [14]. - The overall electric vehicle market in the U.S. is experiencing a slowdown, with a reported drop of over 40% in sales across all brands in 2025 [6][8]. Group 3: Executive Compensation - Tesla has established a compensation incentive plan for CEO Elon Musk, potentially worth up to $1 trillion, contingent on achieving ambitious targets such as delivering 20 million vehicles over the next decade [2][13]. - The plan includes performance metrics tied to Tesla's market capitalization and operational goals, with Musk's stock holdings potentially increasing significantly if the targets are met [13]. Group 4: Market Trends - In the European market, Tesla's new car registrations in November 2025 fell by 11.8% year-over-year, with a cumulative decline of 28% for the first 11 months [6][7]. - The market share for Tesla in the EU has decreased to 1.3%, while the overall market for electric vehicles in the EU has seen a growth of 44.1% in new registrations [7].