Trump's Venezuela Strike Raises Odds Of A Broader War With Iran In Crypto Betting Market

Group 1 - The probability of a U.S. military strike on Iran has increased significantly, with odds rising from 10% to 18% within 24 hours, and further increasing to 28% by the end of March and 35% by June 30 [2][5] - Nearly $700,000 has been wagered on the potential military action, with the market defining a "Yes" outcome if the U.S. conducts any form of strike on Iranian territory [3] - The increase in odds follows a recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the overthrow of President Nicolás Maduro, prompting warnings from President Trump regarding Iran's nuclear program [5][6] Group 2 - Polymarket, the platform facilitating these bets, has faced criticism for profiting from conflict-related events, although it claims to provide valuable insights to those affected by such situations [4] - Iran is currently experiencing internal turmoil due to protests, which have led to significant disruptions in businesses and government operations, with Trump indicating U.S. support for Iranian protesters if violence occurs [6]