Benzinga·2026-01-05 04:26Core Viewpoint - Tesla's current share price is significantly overvalued compared to its fundamental valuation, according to former fund manager George Noble, who argues that the company's ambitious projects do not justify its market valuation [1][2]. Valuation Breakdown - Noble conducted a "sum of the parts valuation" for Tesla, comparing its various segments to competitors. He estimates that the company's total valuation should be around $80 per share, contrasting sharply with its current price of $438.07 per share [2][5]. Robotics Segment - In the robotics sector, Noble compared Tesla's Optimus project to competitors like Boston Dynamics, valued at $5 billion, and Figure AI, valued at $39 billion. He suggests that even a generous valuation for Optimus would only translate to $12 per Tesla share [3]. Robotaxis Business - For the robotaxis segment, Noble referenced Alphabet's Waymo, rumored to be valued at $100 billion. Assigning a similar valuation to Tesla's robotaxis would imply a value of $30 per share [4]. Automotive and Energy Segments - Noble indicated that Tesla's core automotive business is in decline, estimating its worth at $60 billion, or $18 per share. Additionally, he values the energy business at $20 per share [4]. Market Position and Investor Sentiment - Tesla recently lost its position as the world's leading electric vehicle maker to BYD Co. Ltd., marking its second consecutive year of declining sales [5]. Prominent investor Michael Burry has also labeled Tesla as "ridiculously overvalued," highlighting significant declines in vehicle sales projections [6]. Stock Performance - Tesla shares closed at $438.07, down 2.59% on a recent Friday, and are trading at a high forward earnings multiple of 196, compared to the industry average of 17.47 [6].