智通财经网·2026-01-05 05:24Group 1 - The recent arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has shifted focus to how quickly the country, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally, can increase its production [1] - There are significant doubts in the market regarding whether major oil companies will invest in Venezuela given the uncertain environment, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's statement about potential long-term investments [1] - Analysts from the Royal Bank of Canada suggest that if power transitions smoothly, lifting sanctions could potentially release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within the next 12 months, although the recovery path will be long [2] Group 2 - According to Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, while Venezuela theoretically could become a major oil producer again, the geopolitical situation remains unclear post-Maduro's arrest [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that a decrease of 400,000 barrels per day in Venezuelan oil production could raise Brent crude prices by an average of $2 above their forecast of $56 per barrel [3] - Global Risk Management's chief analyst notes that Venezuela's heavy sour crude oil is only processable by certain refineries in the U.S. and China, suggesting that potential losses from this oil are not particularly problematic for the global market [3]