【债市观察】开年政府债供给令债市承压 证监会放宽债基赎回费率相关规定

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in cross-year funding prices has been observed, but the central bank's increased reverse repo operations have maintained a balanced liquidity environment. Concerns over government bond supply at the beginning of the year have led to bearish sentiment in the bond market, with a noticeable rise in the yield curve. The implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees is expected to alleviate redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15]. Market Overview - The yield changes for various maturities of government bonds from December 26, 2025, to January 4, 2026, include increases of 4.5 basis points (BP) for the 1-year bond, 1.44 BP for the 2-year bond, and 2.99 BP for the 5-year bond, among others [2][3]. - The bond market experienced a significant decline, particularly in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, with the 30-year bond futures dropping 1.28%, marking the lowest level since October 2024 [5]. Regulatory Changes - The new regulations on the management of sales fees for publicly offered securities investment funds have been officially implemented, allowing for a longer redemption buffer period of 12 months and easing the redemption fee rates compared to previous drafts. This is expected to reduce the redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15][16]. Primary Market Activity - In the previous week, a total of 9 bonds were issued, amounting to 26 billion yuan, all of which were local government bonds from Beijing. For the upcoming week, 27 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling approximately 157.66 billion yuan, including 4 billion yuan in government bonds and 117.66 billion yuan in local government bonds [7]. International Market Insights - The U.S. long-term treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 6.3 BP to 4.19%, and the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 4.87%. This increase is attributed to better-than-expected employment data and ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets [8][9]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from various institutions have noted that the new regulations on redemption fees for bond funds are a significant positive development, potentially stabilizing the bond market sentiment. However, concerns regarding the supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds remain, and investors are advised to be cautious of re-pricing risks in the yield curve [15][16].