催化明确+估值低位，关注半导体设备ETF（159516）

Market Overview - The semiconductor equipment ETF showed strong performance today, rising over 5% during trading [1] Upward Factors Analysis - CXKJ's prospectus was released, clarifying expectations for storage capacity expansion. The company plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan, totaling 34.5 billion yuan with its own funds, to invest in technology upgrades for storage wafer manufacturing and DRAM storage [1] - A leading manufacturer resumed trading, boosting market sentiment in the sector [1] Future Catalysts 1: Storage Sector - The storage sector's growth is expected to continue, driven by price increases and capacity expansion. CXKJ is the largest and most advanced DRAM manufacturer in China, with a product range that includes DDR4, LPDDR4X, DDR5, and LPDDR5/5X. The company ranks first in China and fourth globally in DRAM shipments [2] - Due to the surge in AI demand, storage-related products have seen significant price increases, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices rising over 300% since September. Contract prices for Q4 are up 75% year-on-year, with DDR5 prices increasing by over 90% in a single month [2] Future Catalysts 2: Lithography Machine Imports - Recent data shows that lithography machine imports exceeded expectations, with November imports reaching 4.6 billion yuan, primarily from Shanghai. The total imports from September to November approached 15 billion yuan, indicating strong expansion demand [4] Dual Drivers: Storage and Advanced Process Expansion - The current narrative for storage and semiconductor equipment differs from previous cycles, as it is driven by global AI demand. Both advanced process expansion for AI computing and storage capacity expansion are critical for overcoming capacity bottlenecks [5] - As of December 31, the semiconductor equipment ETF's P/E ratio was 86.71x, placing it in the 71.87% percentile since its inception, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other semiconductor indices [5] - The upcoming new year is expected to bring fresh order guidance from semiconductor equipment companies, alongside the anticipated listings and price increases in storage, making the semiconductor equipment ETF a high-value investment opportunity [5]