刚果（金）东部延续冲突 沪锡重心仍有望上移

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 326,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 335,260.00 CNY, marking a 2.49% increase [1] - The current trend for tin prices is characterized by a volatile upward movement, with institutions providing mixed forecasts for future performance. New Lake Futures noted a weak overall consumption environment, with a decrease in orders from soldering companies and a decline in operating rates, while supply remained stable [2] - Guizhou Futures highlighted that the official manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.1 in December, indicating economic resilience, and that there has been a significant reduction in social inventory of tin ingots, which decreased by 1,058 tons to 9,309 tons as of December 31, 2025 [3] Group 2 - New Lake Futures suggested that the short-term supply and demand fundamentals for tin are weak, indicating potential downward pressure on prices, while the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic due to expected supply shortages [2] - Guizhou Futures indicated that the short-term bullish factors for the tin market are limited, with prices expected to fluctuate at high levels, and emphasized the importance of monitoring downstream replenishment after price declines [3] - National Investment Trust Futures mentioned that despite ongoing conflicts in eastern Congo, there is no evidence of impact on major mine supplies, and they are monitoring potential mining conferences that may influence market dynamics [2]