Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities projects Yum China (09987) to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of $9.2 billion, $10.1 billion, and $10.9 billion for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with a strong expectation for expansion and high shareholder returns [1][5]. Group 1: Same-Store Performance and Expansion - The company has shown resilient same-store performance, outperforming the industry average, with guidance for same-store sales growth of 0-2% for 2026-2028, indicating strong anti-cyclical capabilities [2][5]. - The company aims to reach a total of 20,000, 25,000, and 30,000 stores by 2026, 2028, and 2030, respectively, supported by optimized capital expenditure per store, flexible store formats, and an increased focus on franchising [2][5][6]. Group 2: Drivers of Same-Store Sales Growth - Key drivers for same-store sales improvement include the introduction of new modules like KPRO, stable classic products, and the launch of new popular items that broaden the price range to attract more customers [6]. - The brand's marketing strategy, particularly the "Crazy Thursday" campaign, has become a significant IP, enhancing customer loyalty and repeat purchases through brand membership [6]. - The company is enhancing its delivery sales and expanding into new dining scenarios, such as single-person meals and meal-sharing options, to strengthen its market presence [6]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain annual dividends and share buybacks of $1.5 billion for 2025-2026, translating to a current market return rate of 8.8% [3][6]. - For 2027 and beyond, the company anticipates shareholder returns to be approximately 100% of its free cash flow, with expected annual returns of at least $9-10 billion for 2027-2028, corresponding to a return rate of about 5.3%-5.8% [3][6].
广发证券:予百胜中国“买入”评级 合理价值453.62港元