韩国四大财团掌门人都来了！

Core Viewpoint - The visit of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to China marks a significant diplomatic effort to establish a more predictable framework for Sino-Korean relations amid ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition [7]. Group 1: Economic Delegation and Trade Dynamics - Accompanying President Lee is a large economic delegation of over 200 members, led by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, including leaders from major corporations like Samsung, SK Group, Hyundai, and LG [1]. - The bilateral trade structure between China and South Korea has undergone a significant transformation, with South Korea's trade surplus with China being disrupted, indicating a structural turning point in their economic relationship [5]. - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume is projected to reach $272.91 billion, reflecting a 2% increase, but a trade deficit of $6.83 billion is expected for the second consecutive year, down from $18 billion in 2023 [4]. Group 2: Changes in Trade Structure - The traditional trade model, where South Korea provided high-end intermediate goods and China handled manufacturing, is being altered as China reduces its dependency on South Korean imports in sectors like semiconductors and chemical materials [5]. - The shift in China's export structure, focusing more on Southeast Asia and other countries, has weakened South Korea's role as a key supplier of components [5]. - South Korea's export structure is highly concentrated, making it vulnerable to shocks, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and displays, which could lead to a reversal in trade dynamics [5]. Group 3: Future Cooperation and Risks - Future Sino-Korean trade is unlikely to revert to the previous vertical division of labor, instead moving towards a model of "limited competition and functional complementarity," with potential growth areas in renewable energy, biotechnology, and digital services [5]. - The primary risk in Sino-Korean relations is not competition but the potential for irrational decoupling due to misjudgments or policy shifts, highlighting the need for high-level communication to stabilize expectations [8]. - The visit is seen as an opportunity for South Korea to redefine its strategic role, aiming to act as a bridge in technology and rules rather than being passively affected by great power competition [8].