南美局势进一步升级 沥青期货盘面存在反弹空间

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of the domestic energy and chemical sector in the futures market, with asphalt futures experiencing a significant increase of 3.78%, reaching 3128.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Group 2 - Cost implications arise from the interruption of Venezuelan oil supply, which may significantly impact asphalt production in China, leading to potential increases in costs even if suitable import alternatives are found [2] - The current spot market shows stable prices for asphalt, with Shandong at 2950 CNY/ton, East China at 3090 CNY/ton, and South China increasing by 40 to 2940 CNY/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a persistent weak supply-demand dynamic, with winter storage not exceeding expectations and general trading levels remaining average, while upstream inventory is slightly accumulating [2] - Refinery operations are stable, with some units undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight reduction in overall excess pressure [2] - Future market outlook suggests that escalating tensions in South America may lead to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil shipments to Asia, increasing risks for non-US buyers [2] - Despite the weak fundamentals in the asphalt market, potential upward drivers may emerge from the raw material side, particularly if Venezuelan oil supply tightens, which could elevate the cost base for asphalt refineries and create further rebound space for asphalt prices [2]