华福证券：汽车以旧换新补贴政策如期落地 26年新能源车同比增速有望维持高增

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the implementation of the vehicle trade-in subsidy policy is timely and will significantly support future industry demand, particularly for mid-to-high-end vehicles [1][2] - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy includes changes such as a shift from fixed subsidies to those linked to vehicle prices, with scrapping subsidies set at 12% for electric vehicles and 10% for gasoline vehicles, with caps of 20,000 and 15,000 yuan respectively [1] - The cumulative wholesale volume of passenger vehicles from January to November 2025 is approximately 26.726 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, while the cumulative retail volume is about 21.476 million units, with a growth of 6.0% [2] Group 2 - The market performance of leading new energy vehicle companies is showing significant differentiation, with brands like Leap Motor, Xpeng, and NIO performing well, while the overall market is affected by price wars and subsidy policy reductions [3] - The expected year-on-year growth rate for new energy passenger vehicles in 2025 is approximately 18%, with a forecasted growth rate of 5-10% for 2026 [2][3] - The total delivery volume of seven key car manufacturers in 2025 is approximately 7.171 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [3]