供需面过剩矛盾加剧 纯碱期价运行区间将继续下移

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with the main contract dropping by 3.06% to 1172.00 CNY/ton as of January 5 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Jiangsu Kunshan Jinggang's soda ash facility has reduced its load and is not quoting prices; Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical has resumed production with a price adjustment, offering light soda ash at 1270 CNY/ton; Henan Zhongyuan Chemical's production remains stable with light soda ash priced at 1130 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is not quoted [2] - The total shipment of soda ash from Chinese enterprises was 727,300 tons for the week of January 4, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.87%, with an overall shipment rate of 104.33% [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate for soda ash was 79.96% as of January 4, down by 1.69% from the previous week, with a production output of 697,100 tons, representing a decline of 2.07% [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Yide Futures indicates that the oversupply situation in the soda ash market is worsening, with heavy soda ash demand remaining above one million tons but slightly offset by light soda ash demand; overall demand has shifted from growth (2021-2025) to stabilization, while new supply is expected to exceed 2 million tons [4] - Yide Futures also notes that cash flow costs are projected between 1250-1300 CNY/ton, with operational expectations for near-term contracts to fluctuate between 1050-1250 CNY/ton, and long-term prices potentially reaching 1350 CNY/ton [4] - Huaan Futures highlights that 2026 will be a critical year for capacity clearance and structural optimization in the soda ash industry, driven by policy changes and the need to meet carbon neutrality goals, which may accelerate the retirement of high-energy-consuming production lines [4] - The share of natural soda ash is expected to increase from 13% to 25%, gradually gaining pricing power, with price levels anticipated to remain between 1050-1300 CNY/ton, indicating a prolonged low-price environment unless significant production cuts occur [4]