供给高压运行且需求增量有限 烧碱期货震荡回调

Group 1 - The domestic caustic soda futures market is experiencing a volatile downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2210.0 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 2213.0 CNY and a low of 2154.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 4.00% [1] - East Wu Futures indicates that despite a rebound last week following alumina prices, the fundamental situation remains limited, with weak demand and high supply pressure persisting [2] - The current market sentiment is weak, with no expectation of a widespread price increase in the near term, necessitating a reduction in supply to improve the situation [2] Group 2 - The supply of caustic soda is expected to increase, as there are no clear maintenance plans for production facilities in Shandong, and the long-term price of liquid chlorine is unlikely to remain low [2] - The demand side shows that while there is still a need for caustic soda, the overall industry is facing significant pressure due to high operating rates and limited demand growth, leading to potential profit compression [3] - The industry is currently under pressure with high inventory levels, and while downstream demand remains, the overall profitability is constrained, necessitating close monitoring of production adjustments [3]