智通财经网·2026-01-05 07:25Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that China's total beef import quota for 2026 will be 2.688 million tons, with Brazil accounting for 1.106 million tons, Argentina for 0.511 million tons, Uruguay for 0.324 million tons, and Australia for 0.205 million tons. The implementation of the import quota system is expected to alleviate supply pressure on imported beef and support a price increase in domestic beef, enhancing the performance of livestock companies [1][2]. Group 1: Import Quota and Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, a safeguard measure will be implemented for imported beef, which includes country-specific quotas and an additional 55% tariff on imports exceeding the quota. This measure is set to last for three years [1][2]. - In 2024, beef imports are projected to account for 27% of total supply, with a total import volume of 2.87 million tons, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase. The import volumes from Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia are 1.34 million tons, 0.59 million tons, 0.24 million tons, and 0.21 million tons, respectively [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The beef price cycle is on the rise due to previous losses in cattle farming leading to reduced supply. As of Q3 2025, the national cattle inventory was 99.32 million heads, showing a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter decline and a 2.4% year-on-year decline. It is expected that beef prices will continue to rise in 2026, providing significant profit elasticity for livestock companies [3]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities linked to both beef and dairy cattle, highlighting companies such as Yuran Agriculture (09858) and Modern Farming (01117) as key targets [4].