甲醇：“弱现实”压制仍存 关注海外供应收缩与MTO装置重启带来的预期兑现

Market Overview - In December 2025, methanol futures experienced a fluctuation, initially declining before rebounding as market sentiment improved due to reduced overseas supply and operational changes in Iranian facilities [4][22][26] - The main contract completed a rollover, with near-month contracts showing relative strength while long-term contracts faced downward pressure [4][22] Supply Side - Domestic methanol production remained high, with a total output of 102 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.93 million tons, or 10.81% [8][30] - In December, production reached 9.07 million tons, up 8.16% year-on-year and 5.67% month-on-month [8][30] - The operating rate of domestic methanol facilities was 90.34% as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 1.34 percentage point increase from the previous month [8][30] - Overseas supply decreased significantly, particularly from Iran, which is the largest exporter and a key supplier to China, with operational rates dropping to 59.96% [9][33] Demand Side - Demand entered a seasonal decline, with downstream purchasing becoming cautious [12][36] - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operating rate was 87.46%, down 3.37 percentage points from the beginning of the month [12][36] - Some regions, like Shandong, saw increased demand due to the restart of MTO facilities, while others faced declines due to maintenance and operational issues [12][36] Inventory - Port inventory levels approached 150 million tons, with a significant increase in imports, totaling 175.46 million tons in December, a 24.04% increase from the previous month [17][42] - Social inventory reached 1.9 million tons, up 62.43% year-on-year, indicating a buildup in stock due to high production and weak demand [18][43] Cost Side - Coal prices have been declining, leading to a reduction in losses for coal-based methanol production [20][45] - The market is currently experiencing a stabilization phase in coal prices, with expectations of limited downward movement due to demand constraints [20][45] Conclusion - The methanol market is characterized by a tug-of-war between "strong expectations" driven by reduced Iranian supply and "weak realities" of high domestic production and inventory levels [22][47] - The upcoming month will be critical in determining whether the anticipated reduction in imports and the restart of MTO facilities can effectively drive down inventory levels and support prices [22][47]