韧性2025｜喊停价格战，车企离盈利还远吗？

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Automotive Industry Pricing Behavior Compliance Guidelines (Draft for Comments)" by the State Administration for Market Regulation is seen as a clear signal to halt price wars and reverse the trend of irrational competition in the automotive industry [1][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The guidelines outline nine high-risk pricing behaviors, including selling below cost, price collusion, and false promotions, and establish a compliance framework covering the entire production, sales, and service chain [1]. - Companies are required to establish pricing mechanisms based on production costs, respect dealers' autonomy in pricing, and regulate the disclosure of fees for "paid unlocking" features [1]. Group 2: Industry Profitability - The profitability of the domestic automotive industry has declined for five consecutive years, with profit margins dropping from 6.2% in 2020 to 4.5% in the first nine months of 2025, significantly below the mechanical industry average of 7.39% [3]. - 74.4% of dealers are experiencing price inversion, and 52.6% are operating at a loss, severely squeezing the space for research and innovation [3]. Group 3: Price Competition and Market Dynamics - The average discount rate for traditional fuel vehicles increased by nearly 8 percentage points year-on-year in 2024, while electric vehicles saw a rise of about 5 percentage points, but the consumption stimulation effect of price wars dropped from 3% in 2023 to 0.6% in 2024 [5]. - The low-price competition has led to systemic risks, with some companies selling below production costs, harming dealer interests and resulting in reduced product quality and after-sales service [5]. Group 4: Cost Reduction Strategies - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement as core strategies to enhance profit margins, with an average vehicle cost decrease of 8.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and a 1.7 percentage point increase in gross profit margins [6]. - Vertical integration of the supply chain is an effective cost reduction path, as exemplified by BYD's comprehensive self-sufficient system from raw materials to finished vehicles [6]. Group 5: Market Transformation - The shift from price wars to value wars signifies the automotive industry's transition from "barbaric growth" to "regulated maturity," reflecting the industry's resilience [9]. - The Chinese automotive market is expected to gradually form a market order characterized by "quality for price and healthy competition," driven by value creation and resilience [11].