看不见的“斩杀线”：600家银行退场背后

Core Insights - The invisible "kill line" is increasingly dragging more banks into historical obscurity, with 312 out of 3529 evaluated banks classified as high-risk, representing only 2.1% of the total banking assets as of mid-2025 [1][12] - The overall operation of banking institutions in China is stable, with financial risks being generally controllable, largely due to continuous reforms over the past few years [2][13] - The banking industry is facing multiple challenges, including a low interest rate environment, insufficient effective demand, real estate risks, and local debt issues, marking the end of the "easy profit" era [3][14] Asset Quality Challenges - As of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for commercial banks slightly increased to 1.52%, with the proportion of special mention loans rising to 2.20%, indicating structural risks [4][15] - Real estate risks are still being released, with one listed bank's real estate NPL ratio soaring to 21.32% in H1 2025, and some state-owned banks exceeding a 5% NPL ratio in real estate loans [4][15] - Retail credit risks are accumulating, with all six major state-owned banks experiencing rising personal housing loan NPL ratios, driven by slowing household income and fluctuating housing prices [4][16] Profitability Compression - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins is approaching a critical point for bank profitability, with the net interest margin at 1.42% as of Q3 2025, still at a historical low [5][17] - Business transformation efforts have not significantly altered the reality of a single income structure, with most small and medium-sized banks deriving over 80% of their net interest income [5][17] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans dropped to around 3.1% in October 2025, complicating the balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining profitability [6][17] Digital Transformation Gap - Digital transformation has become a survival issue, with banks that fail to keep pace being rapidly eliminated by the "kill line" [8][18] - The six major banks have invested over 600 billion yuan in financial technology, while many small banks invest less than 100 million yuan annually, hindering their ability to upgrade infrastructure [8][19] - The gap in transformation quality is critical, with leading banks achieving large-scale application of innovative technologies, while most small banks remain at a basic level of digitalization [8][19] Industry Polarization - The trend of "capacity reduction" in the banking industry is becoming increasingly evident, with resource concentration trends favoring large banks [21][22] - As of H1 2025, the six major banks accounted for over 60% of new loans and over 55% of deposits, exacerbating the first-mover advantage [21][22] - Smaller banks are losing deposits significantly due to a lack of brand influence, while large banks dominate quality credit projects, forcing smaller banks into riskier areas [21][22]