Trump's Venezuela gambit tests investor appetite for geopolitical risk

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risks associated with the U.S. intervention in Venezuela are being underestimated by financial markets, despite the initial calm reaction from investors [1][3][6]. Market Reactions - Asian stocks surged while oil prices saw a modest decline, and gold prices increased due to safe-haven flows following President Trump's announcement regarding U.S. control over Venezuela [2]. - The relatively muted market response to the capture of President Maduro is attributed to Venezuela's small oil production relative to global output, which would require years of investment to restore [4]. Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. military actions in Venezuela could have broader implications for stability in Latin America, raising concerns about potential flow-through effects on the region [4]. - Analysts suggest that the financial markets may not be efficiently pricing the geopolitical risks stemming from U.S. policy shifts in Latin America [6]. Sector-Specific Impact - The defense sector is expected to see immediate impacts, with countries likely to increase defense spending in response to Trump's willingness to use military force [8]. - American oil companies are preparing to invest in Venezuela to restore its oil production, which could unlock the country's vast reserves and potentially boost risk assets in the long term [5].