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Core Viewpoint - The domestic tin price has surged significantly at the beginning of 2026, driven by supply concerns from Myanmar and increased demand from emerging technologies, leading to speculation about the start of a "tin bull" market [1] Group 1: Macro Influences - Tin prices have risen due to a "triple push" from macroeconomic and financial factors, including supportive domestic policies, a weakening dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - The weakening dollar has reduced the cost of non-ferrous metals priced in USD, attracting global capital back to commodities [1] - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Venezuela and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have heightened concerns over resource supply chain stability, increasing the risk premium for strategic metals like tin [1] Group 2: Supply Side Tension - Despite Myanmar's announcement of resuming production, actual supply recovery has been slow due to previous rainy seasons and equipment issues, with December's domestic tin concentrate arrivals decreasing month-on-month [2] - Indonesia's ongoing resource export controls have limited the flow of tin resources to the Chinese market [2] - Global tin inventories are at historically low levels, contributing to price support from supply-side uncertainties [2] Group 3: Emerging Demand Growth - The AI revolution and rapid development of industries such as 5G communication and electric vehicles have significantly increased demand for tin, which is widely used in electronic chips, circuit boards, and batteries [3] - Traditional industries, including home appliances, automotive, and construction, continue to provide stable demand for tin, further supporting its price [3] Group 4: Price Dynamics - Short-term tin prices are expected to oscillate between 330,000 and 340,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a high-stakes battle between strong expectations and weak realities [4] - Supply anxieties from delayed recovery in Myanmar and geopolitical risks in the Democratic Republic of Congo provide solid price support, while traditional consumption is currently in a low season [4] - The current high prices may have already factored in optimistic expectations, with 340,000 yuan/ton identified as a key resistance level [4]