全球石脑油市场迎来三岔路口，2026年供需格局将如何演绎？

Group 1: Global Market Outlook - The global naphtha market is expected to continue its differentiated trends across Asia, Europe, and the United States by 2026 [1] Group 2: Asia Market Dynamics - In East Asia, capacity optimization adjustments are the core factor affecting demand, with South Korea planning to reduce ethylene capacity by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons per year by 2025 [1] - Japan's naphtha demand is experiencing a steady decline due to low petrochemical product profits and planned facility shutdowns, with the Maruzen Chiba plant set to close its naphtha cracking facility between 2026 and 2027 [1][2] - Uncertainty regarding Russian supply is a significant variable in the Asian market, with buyers reducing purchases of Russian naphtha due to stricter scrutiny since U.S. sanctions began in October 2025 [2] Group 3: European Market Challenges - The European market is facing structural contraction, with traditional oil-based naphtha demand expected to decrease at an average annual rate of 1.2% due to deepening carbon neutrality policies and refinery shutdowns [2] - The EU carbon border tax is projected to increase production costs by $25 per ton, further suppressing demand [2] - However, the demand for aviation fuel blending and the advancement of bio-based naphtha projects may partially offset the downward pressure [2] Group 4: U.S. Market Recovery - The U.S. market is anticipated to see a moderate recovery, with naphtha demand growth expected to rebound to 1.8% due to the easing of ethane substitution effects and the commissioning of new petrochemical projects along the Gulf Coast [3] - Flexible feedstock units are expected to increase naphtha procurement to optimize profits, while stable demand for high-octane gasoline blending supports naphtha consumption [3] - Increased exports of light naphtha from the U.S. to Europe may further stimulate domestic demand [3]