Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a significant decline last week, recovering the previous week's losses and forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downward adjustments, although the upward trend and bullish outlook remain intact [1][10]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened slightly higher at $4537.12 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $4548.58, and then fell sharply, with a daily drop exceeding $200. The weekly low was recorded at $4274.54, and the final closing price was $4328.35, resulting in a weekly fluctuation of $274.04 and a decline of $203.91 or 4.5% compared to the previous week's closing price of $4532.26 [3][12]. Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices was influenced by reduced bullish sentiment following the previous surge, profit-taking at year-end, and increased margin requirements for precious metal futures by the CME. Additionally, the initial jobless claims in the U.S. reached a new low since late November, contributing to downward pressure on gold prices [3][12]. Geopolitical and Economic Outlook - On January 5, gold opened higher at $4346.46, driven by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and airstrikes in Yemen, which increased demand for safe-haven assets. However, the sustainability of this upward movement remains uncertain, and investors should be cautious of potential pullbacks [4][14]. Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming release of the December non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, as it will be the first normal monthly data since the end of the U.S. government shutdown. Any signs of a slowing job market could lead to earlier interest rate cut expectations, which may negatively impact gold prices. Other economic indicators, such as ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, will also be assessed for insights into the U.S. economic health and the timing of potential Fed rate cuts [5][14]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent fluctuations, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains unchanged, supported by factors such as expected Fed rate cuts, economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. The market continues to show signs of buying on dips and safe-haven demand [15]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly chart, gold prices showed a significant retreat at the end of December, closing below a trendline resistance and forming a bearish pattern, indicating potential for a larger correction towards the $4000-$3900 range. However, if January sees a strong upward movement, it could open the door for a bull market towards the $5500-$6000 range [17]. Trading Strategy - For day trading, key support levels for gold are noted at $4350 or $4320, while resistance levels are at $4415 or $4445. For silver, support is at $73.50 or $72.30, with resistance at $76.70 or $78.85 [19].
张尧浠:黄金本周仍有调整风险 但后市前景待看新高不变
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-05 09:53