邦达亚洲:美元走高油价下滑 美元加元持续反弹

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen indicated that a modest further rate cut may be appropriate in late 2026, depending on whether the economic conditions remain favorable [1][7] - Paulsen noted that inflation is cooling and the labor market is stabilizing, with an expected economic growth rate of about 2% for the year [1][7] - David Rosenberg, a former Merrill Lynch analyst, expressed concerns that the U.S. economy will face significant challenges in 2026, predicting a sharp contraction in the job market [2][8] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Paulsen highlighted that risks in the labor market remain elevated, with a slowdown in labor demand outpacing the reduction in labor supply due to tightened immigration policies [1][7] - Rosenberg forecasted that the unemployment rate could exceed 5% soon and potentially test 6% by the end of the year, contrasting with the general consensus among Wall Street economists [2][8] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Paulsen acknowledged that tariffs may continue to push inflation higher in the first half of 2026, but she expects commodity inflation to align with the 2% target in the second half [1][7] - Rosenberg suggested that the collapse of the labor market and subsequent recession could force the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 125 basis points to 2.25% by the end of the year [2][8]