金丰来:避险情绪推高金价

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in gold prices is driven by heightened global market risk aversion, influenced by geopolitical events, particularly U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which have created new uncertainties in energy supply and market risk tolerance [1][3]. Price Structure and Market Confidence - Gold prices have shown resilience after a previous high-level pullback, indicating strong medium to long-term confidence in gold as an asset [1][3]. - A significant price increase in gold is expected by 2025, with potential for normal profit-taking phases, but the overall outlook remains positive due to supportive liquidity and risk aversion factors [1][3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - U.S. military actions in Venezuela have impacted market risk tolerance and created uncertainties in energy supply, which may lead investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge against potential volatility [1][3]. - The linkage between energy markets and macro inflation expectations suggests that increased uncertainty will drive funds towards gold [1][3]. Long-term Support for Gold - The fundamental support for gold remains intact, driven by expectations of declining interest rates, increasing official reserves, and insufficient global economic growth momentum, all of which are favorable for gold prices in the medium to long term [1][3]. - Even with short-term volatility, as long as core supportive factors are not disproven, gold is expected to maintain a strong operational pattern [1][3]. Broader Commodity Market Sentiment - The simultaneous rise in other metals such as silver, platinum, and copper reflects a warming sentiment in the overall commodity market, driven by both risk aversion and a reassessment of future demand and liquidity conditions [2][4]. - Gold remains a key emotional barometer for market sentiment, with its price movements serving as an important reference for assessing overall market risk appetite [2][4].