【硅锰】期货高位下跌，硅锰不稳定性凸显

Core Viewpoint - The silicon manganese futures market is experiencing volatility, with the main contract falling below the 5900 line, indicating instability at high levels [1][3]. Group 1: Silicon Manganese Market - The current spot market prices for silicon manganese remain stable compared to pre-holiday levels, with northern prices ranging from 5600 to 5700 CNY/ton and southern prices between 5750 and 5800 CNY/ton [1][3]. - There has been some trading activity before the holiday, with transactions occurring in the 5600-5650 CNY/ton range, while downstream steel procurement is reported to be above 5850 CNY/ton [1][3]. - The opening day saw a decline in prices, which has shaken the confidence of traders, particularly as the northern region's prices for the May contract have decreased by 350-400 CNY/ton [1][3]. Group 2: Manganese Ore Market - Manganese ore prices remain relatively stable, with various quotes reported for different types of ore at Tianjin Port, including CML Australian block at 44 CNY/ton and South32 Australian block at 42 CNY/ton [2][4]. - As of December 31, manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 3.3888 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 117,600 tons from the previous period, while inventory at Qinzhou Port increased by 71,400 tons to 1.007 million tons [2][5]. - The total manganese ore inventory across ports reached 4.4108 million tons, down by 60,200 tons compared to the previous period [5]. Group 3: Steel Production and Procurement - The maintenance rate of steel mills' blast furnaces has slightly increased, contributing to a downward trend in national iron output, with an average daily production of 2.2761 million tons in December 2025, a decrease of 1.5% from November [2][5]. - Feedback from steel mills regarding silicon manganese procurement indicates a general slowdown, with large steel mills' purchasing volumes remaining unaffected, while smaller mills are experiencing longer procurement cycles [5].