【卷螺日报】节后首日下跌！因委内瑞拉事件“尘埃落定”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there are currently no expectations, policies, or positive factors in the short term, making it difficult for steel prices to improve [2][7] - The market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, primarily driven by short-selling pressure in the rebar and hot-rolled coil sectors [2][8] - The cost support logic has diverged, with iron ore remaining strong while coking coal and coke prices are dragged down by falling crude oil prices [2][7] Group 2 - The driving logic for the steel market in 2026 emphasizes the importance of focusing on facts rather than opinions, as the market is currently in a phase of supply-demand and cost logic competition [3][8] - The recent Venezuelan incident did not lead to an increase in oil prices as expected; instead, the market believes that the U.S. will quickly resolve the situation, leading to an increase in oil supply and further pressure on the energy sector [3][8] - The current economic cycle is characterized by a quick upward movement and a slow downward movement, necessitating cautious policy responses to mitigate risks [3][8] Group 3 - The supply-demand structure is affected by two main factors: risk control policies limiting downstream demand and growth stabilization policies prioritizing livelihood and regional stability over profit [3][8] - Capital flows in the steel market are shifting from speculative profit-seeking to arbitrage or hedging, as industry funds are increasingly entering the capital market, leading to reduced price volatility [3][8] - The three identified factors are expected to continue influencing the price fluctuations and driving logic of steel prices in the future [4][9]