ATFX:不是简单避险这一次 黄金正在对全球秩序重新定价

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has been significantly impacted by a sudden geopolitical event, specifically the U.S. military action against Venezuela, leading to a surge in gold prices and a renewed focus on gold as a defensive asset amid rising geopolitical risks [1][4]. Geopolitical Impact - The U.S. military action against Venezuela has disrupted the market's perception of manageable geopolitical risks, causing a spike in safe-haven demand for gold [1]. - This event is seen as a clear escalation in great power competition, prompting a reassessment of the uncertainty premium in global political order [1][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices opened strongly, reaching above $4,370 with a daily increase of nearly 1%, despite the U.S. dollar index also rebounding to a high, indicating that investors are not entirely abandoning dollar assets during this flight to safety [1][4]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, reinforce the expectation of prolonged geopolitical risks, positioning gold as a strategic hedge against systemic risks [1][4]. Technical Analysis - After a previous high, gold prices experienced a quick pullback, stabilizing around $4,330, with $4,300 providing effective support and $4,418 acting as a key resistance level [4][10]. - The market is currently navigating two opposing trends: a short-term strengthening of the dollar due to capital inflows and technical recovery, and a medium-term expectation of a shift towards looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [4][10]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which is expected to provide solid support for gold prices in the medium term [4][10]. - Discussions around gold prices reaching $5,000 or higher reflect a shift in the market's pricing center for gold, indicating increased acceptance of higher price levels among both institutional and retail investors [7][12]. - Upcoming U.S. economic data, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI, will provide new insights into dollar and interest rate expectations, while the aftermath of the Venezuela incident may continue to influence market sentiment [12].