2024 年全球光伏市场进展概述

Global Photovoltaic Market Overview - In 2024, the global photovoltaic (PV) market is expected to add 530 GW of new installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of approximately 30%, surpassing 2000 GW in cumulative installed capacity [5][42] - China continues to lead the global PV market, contributing over 270 GW of new installed capacity in 2024, with both centralized and distributed PV development [5][42] - The United States is projected to add about 50 GW of new PV capacity in 2024, driven primarily by utility-scale PV projects [5][42] - India is emerging as a significant PV market, setting a record with 30 GW of new installed capacity in 2024, reflecting a 145% year-on-year increase [5][42] - Brazil and Germany are accelerating their PV project layouts, with new installed capacities of 14 GW and 17 GW respectively in 2024 [5][42] - Japan's PV market remains stable, with an expected new installed capacity of 5.5 GW in 2024 [5][42] Key Countries' PV Market Situations China - In 2024, China's new PV installed capacity reached 278 GW, a historical high, with centralized PV contributing 159 GW and distributed PV contributing 118 GW [8][45] - The market share of n-type monocrystalline silicon solar cells increased from 30% in 2023 to over 70% in 2024, becoming the market mainstream [11][48] - By the end of 2024, China's cumulative PV installed capacity exceeded 880 GW [10][48] United States - The U.S. PV market saw a strong growth with 50 GW of new installed capacity in 2024, accounting for 66% of the total new grid capacity [12][49] - The demand for electricity from data centers has surged, reaching 45 GW in 2024, driving continued investment in the PV sector [12][49] - The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed in 2022 supports domestic PV manufacturing and installation through various subsidies [12][49] India - India aims for "energy independence" by 2047, with significant measures to enhance renewable energy utilization [14][51] - The cumulative installed capacity of PV in India reached approximately 61% of its total renewable energy capacity by the end of 2024 [14][51] - The government has introduced several supportive policies, including fixed price purchase systems and substantial subsidies for PV projects [15][52] Brazil - Brazil's new PV installed capacity reached 14 GW in 2024, with a cumulative capacity of about 52 GW, representing 20% of the national power capacity [17][54] - Large-scale PV projects are progressing well, particularly in the northeastern regions, attracting significant investments [17][54] - The government has initiated the "New Industrial Brazil" plan to provide incentives for renewable energy technologies [19][56] Germany - Germany's new PV installed capacity was approximately 17 GW in 2024, with a renewable energy share of 59% in total energy generation [20][57] - The country aims to achieve at least 80% renewable energy in its power supply by 2030 [20][57] - Recent legislative changes have reinforced the priority of renewable energy development in achieving carbon neutrality [21][58] Japan - Japan's PV market is expected to add about 5.5 GW of new capacity in 2024, with a cumulative capacity of around 100 GW [22][59] - The introduction of the Feed-in Premium (FIP) system aims to promote market-driven renewable energy development [22][59] - By 2030, Japan targets a cumulative PV capacity of 129-146 GW to meet its greenhouse gas reduction goals [22][59] Development Trends - In the short term, the global PV market is expected to face challenges in maintaining rapid growth due to various factors, including international trade and market capacity [23][24] - By 2025, the global PV market is projected to reach 580 GW in new installed capacity, with China continuing to hold a significant market share [24][25] - Long-term prospects for the global PV market remain strong, with expectations of reaching 7 TW in cumulative installed capacity by 2030 [25][26]