Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining an export tax of $74 per ton and an additional 10% export levy [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain stable oil production through the first quarter of 2026, with oil prices dropping over 18% in 2025 due to concerns of oversupply, marking the largest annual decline since 2020 [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are reported at 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from the previous month, while exports for December 1-25 increased by 1.6% to 1,058,112 tons [1] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are estimated at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from the previous month [1] Inventory and Demand - Reuters reports that Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to nearly a seven-year high, with a 4.7% month-on-month increase to 2.97 million tons, while production is expected to decline by 9% to 1.76 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports fell to an eight-month low in December, estimated at 507,000 tons, a decrease of 20% month-on-month, which may increase inventories in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia [3] Market Sentiment - The expectation of high palm oil inventories is putting downward pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures, leading to a bearish market sentiment [5] - Seasonal declines in production are anticipated in the coming months, which may influence market dynamics [5]
Mhy20260105油脂晚评：12月马棕库存预计冲至七年高位，油脂市场承压