Core Viewpoint - Xunce's debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was disappointing, with its stock price dropping over 35% in pre-listing trading, reflecting market skepticism about the company's value and exposing multiple operational and capital risks [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2021, Xunce reported revenue of 120 million RMB but incurred a net loss of 119 million RMB, resulting in a net loss rate of 99.1%, failing to meet its profitability target [2] - The company's revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 was from 290 million RMB to 630 million RMB, but in 2025, revenue dropped nearly 30% in the first half, totaling 200 million RMB [5] - The gross margin declined significantly from over 76% in 2022-2024 to 66.7% in the first half of 2025, and further down to 12% in October 2025, indicating a severe reduction in profitability [5][4] - The net loss rate increased from 33.5% in 2022 to an expected 54.6% in the first half of 2025, with projections for further losses due to ongoing R&D investments and credit loss provisions [5][6] Group 2: Client and Market Dynamics - The number of paying clients decreased sharply from 232 in 2024 to 121 in the first half of 2025, with a notable drop in clients from the asset management sector [7][9] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) declined from 1.67 million RMB in 2024 to 1.64 million RMB in the first half of 2025, indicating weakened client spending [7][9] - The revenue retention rate plummeted from 98% in 2023 to 36% in the first half of 2025, highlighting increasing client churn and reduced loyalty [7][9] Group 3: Strategic and Operational Risks - Xunce's management has shown a lack of accurate forecasting ability, as evidenced by the significant discrepancy between their 2021 profit expectations and actual performance [3] - The company's strategy of diversifying into multiple industries has come at the cost of profitability, as investments in hardware integration and AI data analysis have led to a drastic reduction in gross margins [8] - The change in underwriting institutions during the IPO process raises concerns, particularly with the exit of key sponsors like CICC after significant progress in the listing process [10] Group 4: Investment and Valuation Concerns - Following the last round of financing in November 2023, Xunce's post-money valuation reached 6.2 billion RMB, while its IPO valuation was set at 15.5 billion HKD, raising questions about the sustainability of such high valuations given the lack of performance support [5][10] - The cornerstone investors in the IPO included entities with limited relevance to Xunce's core business, which may indicate potential issues with the quality and stability of the investment base [10][11]
迅策上市首秀表现疲软 2021年盈利承诺未兑 2025年亏损预计将扩大 客户流失付费意愿下滑