Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-05 11:27Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a structural "mini bull market" in 2025, with the China Securities Banking Index reaching a new high of 8570.16 points and the total market capitalization approaching 15 trillion yuan, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and potential for value reassessment in 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the banking sector's total market capitalization increased by approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, reaching 14.66 trillion yuan by December 31, 2025, with A-share market capitalization surpassing 10 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The China Securities Banking Index recorded a 6.79% increase for the year, despite a notable decline in the second half [2]. - Among 42 A-share listed banks, 33 experienced price increases, with notable performers including Agricultural Bank of China (51.8% increase) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (21.02% increase) [2][3]. Group 2: Individual Bank Performance - Agricultural Bank of China led the market with a total market capitalization increase of 781.4 billion yuan and an A-share market capitalization increase of 747 billion yuan in 2025 [5][6]. - In the H-share market, Agricultural Bank of China also performed well, with a 41.15% increase, while other major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank saw increases exceeding 30% [3]. - The top three banks in terms of annual growth were Xiamen Bank (32.49%), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (22.42%), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (19.96%) [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the banking sector is expected to continue attracting allocation-type funds, with a potential valuation recovery to around 1 times price-to-book (PB) ratio [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the banking operating environment will remain stable, with profit recovery driven by a bottoming out of interest margins and easing asset risks in sectors like local government financing and real estate [7][8]. - However, there are concerns about internal performance divergence within the banking sector, particularly affecting smaller banks, which may face increased revenue pressures and asset quality challenges [8].