Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-05 11:45Group 1: Passenger Vehicle Market Outlook - The overall expectation for the passenger vehicle market in 2026 is a decline of 3.5% in domestic demand due to the 5% new energy vehicle purchase tax [1][6] - As of October 22, 2025, over 10 million applications for vehicle trade-in have been submitted, with over 340 million scrapped and 660 million replaced, resulting in a total subsidy expenditure of 140 billion yuan [1][6] - The new energy vehicle purchase tax will be reinstated at a reduced rate of 5% from January 1, 2026, with a maximum tax exemption of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [1][6] Group 2: Smart Driving Technology - In 2026, the penetration rate of urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 40% [2][7] - The market share of chip suppliers is projected to change, with Nvidia's share decreasing to 45%, Tesla at 15%, Huawei at 25%, and other domestic suppliers at 15% [2][7] Group 3: Heavy Truck Market Forecast - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks are expected to reach 1.16 million units in a neutral scenario, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while domestic sales are projected to decline by 5.5% [3][8] - In an optimistic scenario, wholesale sales could reach 1.25 million units, with domestic sales increasing by 2.7% [3][8] Group 4: Heavy Truck Export Outlook - The export of heavy trucks is expected to accelerate in 2026 as the impact from Russia diminishes, with significant growth anticipated in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East driven by local infrastructure and mining demands [4][9] - The conservative estimate for exports in 2026 includes a year-on-year increase of 20% for Asia, 30% for Africa, and 40% for the Middle East [4][9] Group 5: Globalization Strategy for Passenger Vehicles - The selection of automotive companies for investment should focus on those with high export ratios and established overseas production capacity, particularly those like Chery, Great Wall, and BYD [10] - Companies with a dual strategy of BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) and PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) are better positioned for sustained market access and growth [10]