空调“铝代铜”，这次董明珠和雷军终于一致了

Core Viewpoint - The rising copper prices have led to discussions about the potential for aluminum to replace copper in air conditioning units, with major manufacturers like Gree and Midea currently not planning to adopt aluminum alternatives [1][2][3] Group 1: Copper Price Impact - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with LME copper exceeding $11,870 per ton and domestic prices surpassing 90,000 and 100,000 yuan per ton [2][7] - The air conditioning industry is feeling pressure to raise prices due to high copper costs, but the 2026 appliance replacement subsidy policy may mitigate this pressure [2][7] - Gree Electric has committed to not raising prices for household air conditioners to align with the 2026 subsidy policy, aiming to boost consumer spending [2][7] Group 2: Market Reactions - There were rumors of Midea increasing prices by over 6%, but these were clarified as misinterpretations, with only minor adjustments to specific models [3][8] - Gree's decision to maintain prices reflects its strategy of emphasizing quality and brand value, while Midea's approach shows flexibility in response to cost pressures [3][8] - Gree's air conditioning units reportedly have a gross margin that is over 5 percentage points higher than Midea's, which may explain its ability to avoid price increases [3][8] Group 3: Aluminum as a Substitute - The air conditioning sector is highly sensitive to copper prices, with approximately 85,000 tons of copper consumed annually, accounting for 21% of national demand [4][9] - Some manufacturers, like Wanbao, are exploring aluminum alternatives, with their new series priced significantly lower than traditional models after subsidies [4][9] - Cost savings from switching to aluminum can range from 70 to 80 yuan per unit for evaporators, and up to 300 to 500 yuan for comprehensive replacements [5][9] Group 4: Future Price Trends - The introduction of aluminum may not necessarily lead to lower retail prices, as the market dynamics could result in stable high-end prices and increased competition in the mid-range segment [10][11] - Analysts suggest that if raw material prices do not continue to rise and considering the impact of subsidies, air conditioning prices may remain low in 2026 [11]