【财经分析】2026年财政政策力度前瞻：赤字规模或接近6万亿元

Group 1 - The central economic work conference proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining necessary expenditure intensity and a deficit scale close to 6 trillion yuan [1][2] - The expected scale of new special bonds in 2026 is projected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with an emphasis on optimizing the government bond tool mix and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payments [2][4] - Analysts suggest that the fiscal situation in 2026 will likely remain under pressure, but the role of fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance necessitates continued proactive measures to stimulate demand and support consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The expected deficit rate for 2026 is projected to be no less than 4%, with the total new debt scale anticipated to increase to 15 trillion yuan [4][5] - The increase in new special bonds is expected to support infrastructure investment and address local government financial difficulties, with a potential rise in the issuance of long-term special bonds [5][6] - The central government is likely to increase transfer payments to local governments, exceeding 10 trillion yuan, to alleviate fiscal challenges and stimulate local economic development [2][3] Group 3 - The conference emphasized the importance of addressing local fiscal difficulties and improving the local tax system, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate in 2026 [7] - Analysts foresee three main directions for fiscal reform in 2026: shifting consumption tax collection to local levels, optimizing the sharing ratio of shared taxes, and merging various local additional taxes into a single local additional tax [7][8] - The proposed reforms aim to incentivize local governments to cultivate tax sources and improve the consumption environment, thereby enhancing the overall supply-demand relationship [7][8]