黄力晨:地缘风险快速升温 支撑黄金强势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The gold market remains bullish due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying, with short-term price movements expected to oscillate at high levels [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, testing the $4400 level multiple times, reaching a high of $4402 before retreating to a low of $4309, stabilizing above $4300 [1][5]. - On the following Monday, gold opened higher, breaking through the $4400 resistance and peaking at $4438, currently trading around $4434, aligning with the bullish fundamentals [1][5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators suggest a need for a rebound, with support levels identified at $4353, $4324, and $4300, while resistance levels are at $4400 and $4450 [1][5]. - The daily chart indicates a strong upward movement, with the potential for further gains if gold maintains above the $4400 support level, which coincides with the 10-day moving average [6][7]. Group 3: External Influences - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have heightened market risk aversion, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3][6]. - The increase in margin requirements for precious metals futures by the CME has led some investors to take profits, contributing to short-term selling pressure, but overall demand remains supported by interest rate cut expectations and central bank purchases [2][6].