重要指数，即将调整！金银会跌吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to create short-term selling pressure on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, but it is unlikely to alter the long-term dynamics of the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Impact - The target weight for precious metals in the BCOM will be adjusted to 18.84%, with gold's target weight increasing from 14.29% to 14.90% and silver's decreasing from 4.49% to 3.94% [2]. - The actual weights of gold and silver in the index have significantly exceeded their target allocations, with gold's actual weight dropping from 20.7% to 14.9% and silver's from 8.3% to 3.9% due to price increases anticipated in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Passive funds tracking the index will need to sell gold and silver futures to realign with target allocations, leading to expected selling pressure primarily in early to mid-January [4]. - Analysts believe that while this adjustment may cause short-term price fluctuations, it will not change the underlying fundamental forces driving the precious metals market, such as geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on long-term market fundamentals rather than short-term adjustments, suggesting that investors should consider increasing their positions in gold and silver during this price pressure [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases of gold are expected to support long-term gold prices, with predictions of potential new highs for silver prices around the Lunar New Year [5].