OpenAI的国际化困局

Core Insights - OpenAI projects that by the beginning of the next decade, nearly one-third of the global population will be ChatGPT users, which is approximately three times its current user base of nearly 900 million weekly active users. This large user base could support a substantial advertising and e-commerce business [3][13] - The source of new users is as critical as the number of new users for ChatGPT, with about 90% of its users currently coming from regions outside the United States and Canada, posing a challenge for OpenAI's advertising business [3][14] Revenue Projections - OpenAI expects to generate $112 billion in revenue from the free version of ChatGPT over the next five years, primarily from advertising sales and commissions from online purchases made through the app [4][14] - If advertising and shopping features are successfully implemented, OpenAI anticipates generating $46 billion in revenue from free users in 2030 alone [4][14] User Demographics - The user base of ChatGPT is heavily concentrated outside the United States and Canada, with only about 12% of users from these regions as of Q3 2025 [5][17] - Countries like India and Brazil are significant markets for ChatGPT, but the average revenue per user (ARPU) in these regions is likely lower than in the U.S., Japan, and France, which could hinder advertising revenue growth [8][18] Subscription and Revenue Growth - Currently, only about 5% of ChatGPT's nearly 900 million weekly active users are subscribed to paid plans, with monthly fees of approximately $20 for ChatGPT Pro and $200 for ChatGPT Plus [8][18] - OpenAI plans to introduce a more affordable subscription option, ChatGPT Go, priced at around $5 per month, in countries like India [8][18] - The company aims to increase the average revenue per user from $2 in 2026 to $15 by the end of 2030 [8][18] Cost Considerations - OpenAI anticipates incurring significant costs in running AI models, with projected cumulative costs reaching nearly $150 billion by 2030 [9][19] - The company is relying on revenue from the free version of ChatGPT to help offset these high operational costs [9][19] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI is focused on ensuring the continuous growth of ChatGPT's user base amid intense market competition, having initiated an emergency response mechanism to optimize the platform [10][20] - New features, such as incorporating more visual content in responses, have been launched to enhance user engagement [10][20]