光大期货：1月5日能源化工日报

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - Recent oil prices have shown low volatility, with Brent crude closing at $60.8 per barrel and WTI at $57.33 per barrel as of January 2 [1] - A significant geopolitical event occurred on January 3, with the U.S. launching an operation against Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Maduro, which is expected to lead to a spike in oil prices due to supply concerns [1][2] - Venezuela's current oil production is approximately 1 million barrels per day, with major production areas including the Orinoco heavy oil belt and the Maracaibo basin [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The change in Venezuela's political regime introduces high uncertainty regarding its oil production and trade flows, potentially shifting exports from west to east [2] - Colombia has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to address the regional stability concerns arising from the situation in Venezuela [2] - The geopolitical tensions are likely to increase risk premiums in the oil market, pushing prices higher in the short term [4] Group 3: OPEC+ and Inventory Data - OPEC+ is set to hold a meeting on January 4 to discuss production policies, with expectations of maintaining current output levels in the first quarter of 2026 [3] - U.S. oil inventories have shown a decrease, with total crude oil stocks at 836.107 million barrels, down by 1.686 million barrels from the previous week [3] - Gasoline and distillate inventories have increased, indicating mixed signals in the oil supply-demand balance [3] Group 4: Short-term Price Projections - The short-term outlook for oil prices suggests a potential for a pulse-like increase due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruption fears [4] - In the medium to long term, if U.S. companies regain access to Venezuelan oil, production could increase significantly, alleviating some structural issues in the oil market [4] Group 5: Fuel Oil Market Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to remain stable, with December shipments from the Middle East at approximately 4.6 million tons, despite a decrease from the previous month [6] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is showing marginal improvement, with imports to China expected to be around 1 million tons in December [6] - The market remains focused on geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, which could impact supply chains [7] Group 6: Asphalt Supply and Demand - The geopolitical situation between the U.S. and Venezuela is causing uncertainty in the supply of diluted asphalt, although current supply remains stable [9] - China's asphalt production is projected to be around 2.1 million tons in January, reflecting a slight decrease from December [9] - The market is currently experiencing a weak demand environment, particularly in northern regions, as construction activities slow down [9]