油价下跌缓解通胀忧虑 美债结束连跌止跌回升

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury prices are expected to rise for the first time in a week due to a decline in oil prices following the US military's capture of the Venezuelan president, alleviating inflation concerns in the market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by 2 basis points to 4.17%, while the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, decreased by 1 basis point to 3.46% [1] - The money market has fully priced in expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a 25% probability assigned to a third cut [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Concerns over global oversupply led to a decline in crude oil futures, which in turn caused most global bonds to rise [1] - Any recovery in Venezuelan oil production will follow a sustained decline over the past two decades, while OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries are increasing supply, leading to significant oversupply in the market this year [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen noted that geopolitical shocks historically do not have lasting impacts, as markets typically trade based on macro variables such as growth and inflation rather than the geopolitical events themselves [1]