突破！强对流天气过程可提前4小时预报

Core Viewpoint - China has made significant advancements in intelligent weather forecasting technology, extending the effective forecasting duration for severe convective weather to 4 hours [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Breakthrough - The National Satellite Meteorological Center, in collaboration with universities and research institutes, developed a deep diffusion model based on Fengyun satellite data [1]. - This model successfully captures the rapid nonlinear evolution of small to medium-scale systems, which is a core challenge in forecasting severe convective weather [1][2]. Group 2: Model Capabilities - The deep diffusion model predicts the spatial and temporal evolution of convective clouds over a 4-hour period, utilizing infrared brightness temperature sequences from the Fengyun-4A satellite [2]. - It provides high-resolution convective forecasts for approximately 20 million square kilometers, with updates every 15 minutes, demonstrating stable forecasting capabilities across various spatial scales (from 4,000 meters to 48,000 meters) and seasons [2]. Group 3: Future Implications - The ongoing technological iterations and improvements in the operational system are expected to enhance disaster prevention and mitigation for severe weather events such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, and short-term strong winds [2]. - The successful launch of Fengyun-4C satellite on December 27, 2025, is anticipated to further improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts for severe convective weather due to its higher spatial resolution and enhanced detection capabilities [2].