Rivian's 2025 Deliveries Fall Y/Y: Will a Cheaper R2 Reignite Demand?

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive, Inc. delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, a decrease from 51,579 in 2024, with production totaling 42,284 units compared to 49,476 the previous year [1][8] - The broader auto industry is facing slowing EV demand, influenced by the expiration of a $7,500 U.S. tax credit, which has raised vehicle prices and raised concerns about sustaining demand as production scales [2] - Rivian plans to introduce the R2 model, which is expected to be significantly cheaper than the R1T and R1S, aiming to penetrate the mass market while maintaining core design and performance [3] - Initial deliveries of the R2 are expected in the first half of 2026, with production ramping up in the latter half of the year, targeting an annual capacity of about 215,000 units by late 2026 and into 2027 [4] Industry Comparisons - Tesla reported deliveries of over 418,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, down from over 495,000 in Q4 2024, with full-year deliveries at over 1,635,000 compared to more than 1,789,000 in 2024 [5] - BYD delivered 4.6 million vehicles in 2025, a 7.7% increase from 2024, with sales evenly split between fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids [6] Performance and Valuation - Rivian's stock has outperformed the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry over the past six months, with a gain of 52.2% compared to the industry's 46.4% [7] - Rivian appears overvalued based on its price/sales ratio, trading at a forward sales multiple of 3.52, above the industry's 3.3 [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian's loss per share for 2025 and 2026 has seen minor adjustments, with a narrowing of one cent for 2025 and a widening of 11 cents for 2026 [10]