Raymond James Upgrades Estée Lauder to Strong Buy on Turnaround Execution

Group 1 - Raymond James upgraded Estée Lauder from Market Perform to Strong Buy, setting a price target of $130, and identified the stock as one of its top picks for 2026 [1] - The firm indicated that Estée Lauder's turnaround has transitioned from a narrative phase to one focused on execution, with fiscal 2025 expected to mark the earnings trough [1] - Improving market share trends in the U.S. and category growth in China are anticipated to support faster and more consistent sales and profit growth moving forward [1] Group 2 - Travel Retail is expected to be less of a headwind, with a shift towards faster-growing retail channels and margin rebuilding supporting increased investment in sustainable growth drivers [2] - Continued cost savings from the company's Profit Recovery & Growth Plan are also expected to contribute to this sustainable growth [2] Group 3 - Raymond James raised its fiscal 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to $2.23 and $3.05, respectively, which are above Bloomberg consensus forecasts of $2.16 and $2.93 [3] - The $130 price target implies a valuation of 37x calendar-year 2027 earnings, 18x EV/EBITDA, and 3.2x EV/sales [3]