Inside APLD's AI pivot: How the 2026-2027 Lease Ramp Aid the Stock

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is restructuring its operations to focus on high-performance compute hosting, supported by long-term leases and a sustainable financing model [1] - The company operates two segments: a legacy Data Center Hosting Business and a High-Performance Compute Hosting Business, with the latter being the main growth driver [1] Segment Developments - At the Polaris Forge 1 campus, the expansion has reached a fully leased capacity of 400 MW with CoreWeave as the sole tenant, with lease revenue expected to start from late 2025 [2] - Polaris Forge 2 is under construction, with an initial capacity of 300 MW expected to be operational by 2026, and a U.S. investment-grade hyperscaler has leased 200 MW [2] Funding and Construction - APLD is utilizing asset-level financing structures to minimize corporate dilution, having drawn $112.5 million from a preferred equity facility and secured $50 million in equipment financing [3] - The company has 700 MW under construction across its campuses, with a targeted build cycle of 12 to 14 months [3] Revenue Transition - Current revenues are primarily from low-margin tenant fit-outs, but as facilities become operational, revenue will shift to multi-year lease agreements, enhancing earnings visibility [4] - APLD anticipates approximately $11 billion in contracted lease revenues from Polaris Forge 1 and about $5 billion from Polaris Forge 2 over 15 years [5] Financial Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is $280.9 million, indicating a 30.4% growth from fiscal 2025, with an expected loss of 31 cents per share [6] - APLD's stock has increased by 187.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector [7] Competitive Landscape - APLD faces competition from major data center operators like Equinix, emphasizing the need for speed and innovative cooling designs in AI-focused infrastructure [8] - The company is transitioning from low-margin fit-outs to multi-year leases, with a total of $16 billion in leases across its Polaris Forge campuses [8]