2025年债市不再“躺赢” 久期分化加剧 中长期债基收益上限明显高于短债

Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by a long-term downward trend in interest rates, yet bond investment returns are not favorable, with many pure bond funds showing negative annual returns [1][2] - The average annual return for medium to long-term pure bond funds is significantly higher than that of short-term bond funds, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market in 2025 is experiencing unique conditions, where the attractiveness of bonds is diminished despite a long-term decline in interest rates [2] - The average return for medium to long-term pure bond funds is 1.02%, while short-term bond funds average 1.49%, marking a departure from the previous 4% return era [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment shows a slow recovery, with monetary policy remaining stable and slightly accommodative, limiting the potential for significant interest rate declines [2] Group 2: Fund Performance - Medium to long-term pure bond funds are seen as a source of "yield elasticity," with top-performing products achieving returns over 5%, while short-term funds serve as stabilizers with returns concentrated between 1% and 3% [3] - The performance of medium to long-term funds is more variable, with increased standard deviation and extreme value ranges, indicating higher net asset value volatility [3] Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The pricing power of long-term bonds is shifting from trading to allocation, influenced by supply pressures and changing market conditions [4][5] - Recent regulatory changes are further pushing the pricing power of long-term bonds towards allocation, as liquidity conditions improve for short-term bonds [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a neutral duration strategy, with a focus on high coupon assets and long-duration assets as valuable investment opportunities [5]