Preliminary assessment of the EU Light Vehicle CO2 roadmap changes

Core Insights - The EU's long-term forecasts for BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) sales have been adjusted, reducing the expected share from approximately 60% in 2030 to 50% [1] - The proposed changes to CO2 reduction targets for 2030 and 2035 are significant, with a shift from a 100% reduction by 2035 to a 90% reduction, allowing for some combustion-based technologies [6][13] - The introduction of a new segment for small, affordable BEVs that earn 'supercredits' is expected to incentivize sales and support compliance with CO2 regulations [4][11] Regulatory Changes - Minimum quotas for Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) and low emission vehicles will be required for fleets, with specific targets for countries like Germany needing to achieve over 50% ZEVs by 2030 [5] - The 2030 target for CO2 emissions will require a reduction of more than 40 grams/km in average tailpipe emissions, which poses a challenge for OEMs not currently compliant with the 2025 target [7] Market Dynamics - The BEV share in the EU passenger car segment is projected to be just over 17% for 2025, with significant year-on-year growth of 32% compared to 2024 [8] - Business registrations accounted for 60% of all BEV registrations in 2025, indicating a stronger uptake in the business sector compared to private buyers [9] Challenges and Opportunities - The lack of private buyer participation in the BEV market is a significant barrier, as the cost of ownership and required behavior changes may deter potential buyers [10] - The proposed removal of company car benefits for non-ZEVs is expected to maintain momentum in the business sector, while private sector adoption remains challenging [9] Future Outlook - The measures around 2030 are seen as well thought out, potentially allowing the industry to comply with fewer penalties, provided EU support continues [12] - The conditions for ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles post-2035 suggest a significant reduction in their volume, with a de facto ban on ICE propulsion for many OEMs [13][15] - The transition to a zero-tailpipe vehicle fleet remains a priority, with the industry needing to adapt to the evolving regulatory landscape while maximizing technical advancements in e-mobility [16][17]