Oil experts predict slight rise in gas prices as global tensions mount

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainty and the decline of Venezuelan oil exports may lead to a slight increase in oil and gasoline prices, although prices at the pump are expected to remain at their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 1: Oil Price Projections - Andy Lipow projects that oil prices could rise by $3 per barrel, translating to less than 10 cents per gallon for gasoline, while current crude oil prices are significantly lower than a year ago [2] - As of the latest data, Brent crude is priced at $60.75 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $57.79 per barrel, compared to over $70 per barrel a year prior [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Market - Key factors affecting the oil market include potential supply disruptions from unrest in Iran and possible changes in OPEC+ policies regarding production cuts to meet budgetary needs [3] - The impact of Venezuelan oil output is diminishing, as it now accounts for less than 11% of the global oil supply, with OPEC+ increasing output and global refinery capacity [5] Group 3: Global Supply Concerns - Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes, pose a significant threat to global oil prices, making the situation in Iran critical to monitor [6] - The U.S. now controls Venezuela's oil reserves, which are the largest in the world, raising concerns about the financial pressure on OPEC+ countries due to prolonged low oil prices [8] Group 4: Future Demand and Production - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil demand could continue to grow until 2050, but current oversupply due to restored production cuts in 2025 may lead to lower prices and revenues [10] - With record oil production levels in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana, OPEC+ may need to implement production cuts to stabilize prices [11]