2026年地方债“开闸” 一季度地方计划发债超万亿元

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of special refinancing bonds for debt management and infrastructure financing, highlighting the expected changes in the issuance schedule of local government bonds and the impact of policy adjustments on project funding efficiency [1]. Group 1: Special Refinancing Bonds - The use of special refinancing bonds for debt management is expected to accelerate the issuance of infrastructure-related bonds, thereby speeding up construction timelines [1]. - The issuance schedule for infrastructure bonds is primarily influenced by local project preparation and willingness to construct [1]. Group 2: Bond Issuance Forecast - The peak issuance period for the first quarter is anticipated to occur in late January and early March, with the overall peak for the year likely in the second quarter [1]. - A decline in issuance is expected in the third quarter, although the supply will remain at a high level, with the fourth quarter seeing a tapering off of local bond issuance [1]. Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The Central Economic Work Conference's proposal to "optimize the management of local government special bond usage" has garnered market attention [1]. - The deepening of the "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program has expanded the areas where local special bonds can be directed, significantly shortening project application cycles and enhancing local autonomy in bond issuance [1]. Group 4: Future Expectations - It is expected that the optimization direction will allow for broader use of special bonds as capital, increasing their catalytic effect [1]. - The expansion of the "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program is anticipated to enhance the efficiency of special bond issuance as pilot regions mature in project review, fund management, and risk prevention [1].