强对流天气过程可提前4小时预报

Core Insights - China has made significant advancements in intelligent weather forecasting technology, extending the effective warning time for severe convective weather to 4 hours [1][2] Group 1: Technological Breakthrough - The National Satellite Meteorological Center, in collaboration with universities and research institutes, developed a deep diffusion model based on Fengyun satellite data [1] - This model utilizes the monitoring advantages of Fengyun-4 satellites to extract and predict the complex random movements of convective cloud systems [1] Group 2: Forecasting Capabilities - The deep diffusion model provides high-resolution convective forecasts for approximately 20 million square kilometers, with updates every 15 minutes for the next 4 hours [2] - The model demonstrates stable forecasting capabilities across different spatial scales (from 4,000 meters to 48,000 meters) and seasons, maintaining high reliability even in longer-term forecasts of 2 to 4 hours [2]