Are NAB shares worth considering in January?

Core Viewpoint - National Australia Bank Ltd's share price is under scrutiny as investors attempt to establish a price target for the company [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - Australia's major banks constitute approximately 30% of the share market by market capitalization, highlighting their significance in the financial landscape [2] - The popularity of ASX bank shares has been notable since the early 1990s, particularly following a recession and high mortgage interest rates exceeding 15% [2] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a key metric for valuing bank shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [3] - Three methods to utilize the PE ratio include intuitive buying/selling based on PE levels, comparing PE ratios with peers or sector averages, and calculating a valuation by multiplying earnings per share by an appropriate PE multiple [4] Group 3: Current Valuation of NAB - NAB's current share price is $42.54, with earnings per share for FY24 reported at $2.26, resulting in a PE ratio of 18.8x, slightly below the banking sector average of 19x [5] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation based on the average PE ratio yields a valuation of $42.58 per share [5] Group 4: Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a robust valuation method for banks, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - The formula for DDM valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), and it is advisable to calculate with various growth and risk assumptions [8] Group 5: DDM Valuation Results - Using a DDM approach, the valuation of NAB shares is estimated at $35.74, which increases to $36.16 with an adjusted dividend payment of $1.71 per share [10] - Considering fully franked dividends, a gross dividend payment forecast of $2.44 results in a valuation of $51.66 for NAB shares [11] Group 6: Growth and Risk Rate Analysis - Different growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations, with a 6% risk rate and 2% growth rate suggesting a share price of $42.75, while a 10% risk rate and 4% growth rate suggest a valuation of $28.50 [12] Group 7: Further Considerations - Additional factors for analysis include the sustainability of net interest margins, regulatory challenges, and the assessment of the management team's effectiveness [13]