周一原油价格上涨逾1%，委内瑞拉局势令原油市场蒙上不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions by the Trump administration to overthrow Venezuelan President Maduro have introduced significant uncertainty in the oil-rich country, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices [1][5]. Oil Price Movement - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for February delivery closed at $58.32 per barrel [6]. - Brent crude futures increased by $1.01, or 1.66%, closing at $61.76 per barrel [2][7]. U.S. Investment in Venezuelan Oil - President Trump stated that U.S. investment in Venezuela's oil industry is a key objective of the action against Maduro [2][8]. - Trump emphasized that large U.S. oil companies would be allowed to enter Venezuela to invest billions of dollars in repairing severely damaged oil infrastructure [8]. Venezuelan Oil Reserves and Production - Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, has the largest proven oil reserves globally, totaling 303 billion barrels, which accounts for approximately 17% of the world's total [3][8]. - Oil production in Venezuela has drastically declined from a peak of about 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to approximately 800,000 barrels per day currently [3][8]. Current U.S. Operations in Venezuela - Chevron is currently the only major U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, with an average export volume of about 140,000 barrels per day projected until the end of Q4 2025 [3][9]. Market Analysis and Future Projections - Goldman Sachs' oil research head, Daan Struyven, noted that the short-term impact of Maduro's overthrow on oil prices remains unclear, with potential for slight production recovery if a pro-U.S. government takes power and sanctions are lifted [9]. - RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft indicated that reversing the production decline would require an annual investment of $10 billion and a stable security environment to restore production to historical levels [4][9]. - If the power transition is orderly, a complete lifting of sanctions could increase daily production by hundreds of thousands of barrels within 12 months [4][9]. However, chaotic regime changes could invalidate such forecasts [4][9].