亚太经济：在不确定性中巩固增长韧性

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to show resilience in economic performance despite facing increased uncertainty from global monetary policy adjustments, geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, trade protectionism, and financial market volatility. The IMF forecasts a growth rate of 4.5% for 2025, slowing to 4.1% in 2026 [1][2] - The region's economic growth is supported by a well-established manufacturing system, a large consumer market, and strategic advantages in global shipping, which have been developed over the past 30 years [1] - The World Bank indicates that the economic growth rate in East Asia and the Pacific remains above the global average, highlighting the region's importance in global economic growth [1] Group 2 - Economic disparities within the Asia-Pacific region are becoming more pronounced, with different economies relying on varying degrees of policy adjustments and structural reforms, leading to differentiated benefits from the ongoing industrial chain restructuring [2] - China continues to lead as a major economy, maintaining stable growth and contributing positively to global economic growth, while Japan's recovery is supported by mild inflation and improved corporate profits, despite long-term challenges from an aging population [2] - Southeast Asian economies are projected to grow at 4.5% in 2025, driven by resilient domestic demand, tourism recovery, and investment, although external trade tensions remain a significant concern [3] Group 3 - The Asia-Pacific economy is expected to maintain a relatively leading position in the global economy in 2026, with growth increasingly dependent on policy coordination and the effectiveness of structural reforms [3][4] - Digital transformation, green economy initiatives, and infrastructure development are identified as key drivers for sustained economic growth in the region, enhancing production efficiency and market scale [3] - Challenges such as potential low-speed global economic growth, rising debt levels, and climate risks are anticipated to test fiscal and social governance capabilities in the region [4][5]